Small Free Agent Signings

Mets Geek looked at all the small things Omar Minaya has done this off-season to shore up the Mets bench, making the case that small amounts of money were wasted on a lot of players, equaling a lot of wasted money. 

Tim Redding, Freddy Garcia, Alex Cora, and Cory Sulivan cost the Mets $6.35 million according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Redding and Garcia have incentives that could kick in to the tune of $7.25 million. Rob Mackowiak, Kyle Snyder, and Jon Switzer were also among the players Mets Geek listed as a waste of money.

TBD Spin

Although the money adds up, the players give the Mets depth and options at all positions, even if they seem like poor ones. How would the Yankees season have gone last year if they had a Redding or Garcia to plug in at the end of the their rotation, and stop the bleeding?

Also, Minaya has a reputation for finding players of the scrap heap, and getting production out of them, like Oliver Perez. Don’t be surprised if one or more of these players has an important role with the Mets in 2009.

What’s Dunn is Dunn

Howard Megdal and Konstantin Medvedovsky wrote this piece in The Perpetual Post talking about the undervaluing/overvaluing of Adam Dunn. Dunn’s value has dropped to around $5 million a year, and maybe for just one year.

Here is what I think:

• If the Mets knew Dunn was going to be available for so cheap, they should have bought out Carlos Delgado and signed Dunn. Combined, it would have cost around $10 million on 2009, saving the Mets a couple million. Dunn could then play first base or left field.
• The Mets should still sign Dunn to a multi-year deal. The money would be a bargin per year, and he could replace Delgado next year.

Dunn is 29, significantly younger than Delgado. However, his downside is his defense and his high strikeout rate. Dunn swung and missed 166 times last year, and in his careers, holds two of the top six records for most K’s in a season. He made three errors in 19 games at first base for the Diamondbacks last year, and eight playing corner outfield between the D-Backs and Reds.

Since the Mets already have Delgado for 2009, I’ll work off the notion that Dunn should be signed for LF in 2009, then moved in 2010 if necessary. 

Whether he produces like 2008 or not, Delgado is gone at the end of this season. He’ll be 38, and not worth the money he could be seeking, leaving a hole at first base for the Mets, and no solutions for it in free agency.

Nick Evans or Daniel Murphy could be the solution, depending on how they come along this year, but either one of them could be put in a corner outfield spot.

But that’s next year. Let’s look at this year.

Tuesday Night Headlines

• Anthony Rieber at Newsday quotes a source saying the Mets are “a little closer” to signing Oliver Perez, while Jon Heyman says talks have slowed. Both sides are said to be weighing their options, which for the Mets means Ben Sheets, Randy Wolf, and Jon Garland.
• Another team linked to Perez, the Brewers, are likely done adding pieces. Andrew McCalvy of MLB.com quoted Brewers Manager Doug Melvin as saying, “there’s probably players we don’t know of yet that [will be acquired] by waiver claims or trades before the season starts. But as far as going to Spring Training, yeah, I don’t think there’s going to be that much more activity.”
• Meanwhile, the Diamondbacks and Garland resumed talks, according to Nick Piecoro. Garland had turned down a two- year deal worth between $11-12 million less than two weeks ago, but with pitchers and catchers only three weeks away, and other teams zeroing in on their targets, Arizona might be the best fit for Garland. Last year with the Angels, Garland was 14-14 with a 4.90 ERA in 191.2 innings.
• Finally, on the rumors and speculation front, Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com writes that there is still a chance Manny Ramirez could end up with the Mets. After the Mets snuck in the back door to acquire Johan Santana, nothing seems impossible, but don’t get your hopes up.

Bobby Abreu Lowers Asking Price

ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports that Bobby Abreu has lowered his asking price to three years, $10-11 million, similar to Raul Ibanez and Milton Bradley.

Tim Dierkes at MLB Trade Rumors speculates that the Reds, Dodgers and Braves are interested in Abreu, but that price is still too high.

Abreu, who turns 35 in March, has driven in and scored 100 runs each of the last five years, and routinely posts a high On Base Percentage. He also sees a lot of pitches. Someone like that makes sense in the number three hole for the Mets. They could go Reyes, Castillo, and Abreu before getting to the big bats at four, five, and six. He’d come cheaper than Manny Ramirez, and leave the Mets room to spend on a pitcher without completely over shooting their budget.

The downside is his documented fear of the outfield wall, which many New Yorkers can attest to. He’s also a right fielder, the same as Ryan Church, so someone would have to agree to switch positions.

TBD Spin

I’ve always thought Abreu would be a good fit in the Mets lineup as a two or three hitter. Abreu is as patient as they come, and would help work a pitchers pitch count. The flip side of that is his terrible defense. Having Beltran next to him would help sometimes, but honestly, how much worse would he be than Daniel Murphy or Fernando Tatis?

The Case Against Manny Ramirez

After the Mets signed Francisco Rodriguez and traded for J.J. Putz, every Mets fan was content. Some of that had to do with Aaron Heilman going to Seattle. Most of it was because the Mets ownership addressed a problem and fixed it convincingly, the same way they addressed the starting rotation last year.

The Mets have more than one problem this off-season. There is also catcher, second base, left field, a big offensive threat, and a slot in the starting rotation. All of these could be fixed… if the Mets want to spend more money than the Yankees.

So Mets ownership has to pick and choose. So do the fans, bloggers, and talk show hosts, and overwhelmingly, they have chosen Manny Ramirez.

The Mets have a spot for him in the outfield, and if Manny could do for the Mets what he did for the Dodgers last year, a World Series appearance could be a reasonable discussion.

But as each day passes, the signs seem to indicate the Mets won’t move on cries of the masses. So before Mets fans start jumping off buildings like that scene from The Happening, let me explain why the Mets shouldn’t sign Manny.

 

By most estimations, the Mets have, at most, $20 million left to spend this off-season. With the Dodgers offering Ramirez two years, $45 million, the Mets will have to give Manny an annual salary of $25 million, and probably for three years.

That alone will leave them unable to sign a higher talent for their rotation. They might not be able to spend the money on someone marginal like Randy Wolf. With Manny, the Mets rotation after Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey, and John Maine would be some combination of Freddy Garcia, Tim Redding, Jon Neise, or another rookie or journeyman starter.

They will look more like the 2008 Yankees. All offense, no depth at starting pitching. The Mets don’t need to spend $25 million to do that, since they finished with the same record as the Yankees last year without Manny.

When Manny went to the Dodgers, they already had starting pitching. Derek Lowe, Chad Billingsley, Hiroki Kuroda, and Clayton Kershaw. It was James Loney and Matt Kemp who weren’t striking fear into other teams.

If you put Manny on the 2008 Mets, you have a World Series contender. Manny on the 2009 Mets the way they are constructed now, you have a wild card contender.

Weighing in on Pudge

One problem that’s been largely ignored this winter is what the Mets should do at the catcher position, probably because there aren’t any answers without pulling off a trade. Nevertheless, Ramon Castro has trouble staying healthy and Brian Schneider has trouble producing with the bat.

One player still available is Ivan Rodriguez, and Matthew Cerrone discussed making him a spring training invitee:

“at best, he wins the job, which i doubt would happen… but, there’s nothing wrong with competition… at worst, he’s a bust and it comes at no major expense…”

Fan Graphs just did an analysis of stealing on catchers, saying this about Pudge:

“Ivan Rodriguez, who in the 1990’s routinely had observed CS% of over .500, has the past two seasons only been slightly better than average at .273 and .275. Although the rate attempt rate against Rodriguez has risen to .040 (average=.047), over the last six years he has the lowest rate at .029”

If the Mets were to sign Rodriguez for this year, it wouldn’t be much of an upgrade over Schneider/Castro. Schneider had better defensive numbers last year than Rodriguez, and after Pudge’s offensive deterioration with the Yankees, can he even be considered an upgrade? A new face, yes, worthy of the minimum type deal.

But not the Mets solution behind the plate.

Perez, Sheets updates

Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog.com has an update about Oliver Perez stemming from Jon Heyman’s appearance on MLB Networks Hot Stove Show. Heyman believes the Brewers and the Rangers may be getting involved, although the Mets remain the favorite.

Breaking that down further – yesterday, the Rangers were said to be weary of a multi-year deal with Ben Sheets due to his X-rays, but MLB’s Hot Stove panel believes that’s where Sheets will end up.

Tom Haudricourt of the Journal Sentinel wrote in his blog that he doesn’t believe Milwaukee isn’t interested in Perez because they think he’s overvalued and don’t want to forfeit a draft pick. Haudricourt says:

“I think this is mostly a smokescreen provided by Perez’s agent, Scott Boras. The Brewers, of course, have “interest” in any pitcher that might help them. But there are varying degrees of interest, from “very slight” to “highly interested.”

Perez and Sheets remain the best pitchers left from the 2009 free agent class, and the Mets are favoring Perez. Perez doesn’t have the health concerns that Sheets has, and also brings the same upside, be it inconsistent. He also provides a solution to the Phillies lefty stacked lineup, giving up only one earned run against them in 26 innings last year.

The Mets offer with Perez is reported to be better than the original three-years, $30 million, and although there is a rumor Perez has until the weekend to decide, Cerrone doubts that is true.

What’s Castillo Waiting For?

The Hardball Times has an article out today about first pitch fastballs, and who likes ‘em.

According to their research, Luis Castillo received a first pitch fastball 86.3 percent of the time in 2008, second only to the Yankees Brett Gardner at 87.7 percent. Not surprising since Castillo is a weak hitting middle infielder, and the Jose Reyes was on first base just under a third of the time Castillo stepped in the box.

What’s surprising is this — when he gets a first pitch fastball, Castillo swings a mere 15.5 percent of the time. The Hardball Times had this to say:

“The word is out that Castillo will be taking on the opening pitch, so pitchers are throwing the fastball to get strike one on him. While Castillo is a very good two-strike hitter, getting into a hole right away was a real problem for him last year and contributed to his poor performance.”

Tom Glavine was also praised for “reinventing” his approach, allowing him to pitch longer enough to win 300 games. Perhaps Castillo could do some reinventing and swing at more first pitch fastballs. He may be good at protecting the plate with two strikes, but he posted a career worse in batting average last year ( .245). 

Monday’s Headlines

New developments on the Manny, Sheets front broke today:

• Jerry Manuel appeared on SNY tonight, and, among other things, hinted he wants Manny Ramirez in blue and orange. While Manuel doesn’t plan to lobby on Manny’s behalf, you have to wonder if this changes the front offices perspective. 
• Meanwhile, Manny and the Dodgers remain far apart writes Jon Heyman. That’s good news for Mets fans hoping their team will swoop in, but bad news since the Mets would have to offer at least three years, $75 million.
• The Star-Telegram published a report about the Rangers fading interest in Ben Sheets. New X-rays show Sheets is more of a risk than previously thought. 
• Speaking of injuries, New York Baseball Hack talked to people outside the Mets who believe John Maine could be a break down candidate this year. Mets Geek is also bracing for disappointment with Johan Santana and Mike Pelfrey as well.
• Along with Rob Mackowiak, the Mets have also signed Kyle Snyder and Jon Switzer.
• No word yet on the Mets offer to Oliver Perez, but rumor is that a deal will be done by Saturday.

What’s On Tap

In the coming days, I am going to look at stats from the past year or so, and try to analyze once and for all who the Mets should pursue – Oliver Perez or Ben Sheets?

Also, it might be time to stop imaging Manny being a Met in 2009. I’ll make the case that the Mets shouldn’t pursue the hottest free agent on the market.